Forest through the trees

“One thing you have to understand about this gadget is that the gadget disappears pretty quickly. You’re looking into pure software.”

That’s New York Times business writer Nick Carr, on the iPad. It’s no coincidence that this device and the Wii have enjoyed—and will enjoy, as is the case of the iPad—such success. It’s all about the software, not the hardware. Always has been.

Metal Gear Solid load

Question: What happens when you base your entire strategy around a huge, multimillion dollar blockbuster title meant only for the small percentage of gamers we call “hardcore?”

Answer: Your net revenue for digital entertainment (games) drops 32.5% the following year because you blew your load with that one title (which most people agree was one big cutscene letdown).

Dichotomy

Glancing at the December NPD numbers tonight—you know, the ones that showed Nintendo annihilating the competition 3:1—it struck me that games like Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 blow their load with six million sold on launch day, and then take a permanent nap thereafter.

Meanwhile, Mario Kart Wii, that quirky, stupid little racer that a MW2 player would have you believe seniors play at the nursing home, somehow sneaks into the top ten for one of the most important months of the year with nearly one million sold. That’s 700,000 copies behind MW2 (360 version), which launched the month before.

Don’t forget though, kiddies: 2010 is the year of the PS3!

Wait, what about Bionic Commando?

Blame the audience, not yourself:

Capcom France Boss: Less Wii After Darkside Chronicles Sells Only 16k

Further expanding on this curious line of reasoning, I can only surmise that, after the colossal failure of Capcom’s Bionic Commando hardcore “re-imagining” in 2009, the publisher will no longer be selling games of any kind.

Square Enix went and forgot to include the video game part in their Final Fantasy XIII video game

Remember when cut scenes were the short treat that you had to earn in a Final Fantasy title after long battles and rampant game play/exploration? Now you’d be hard pressed to find any game play whatsoever.

Nintendo didn't delay MotionPlus, third party developers did

This attachment was cooked and ready at E3 last year, and now it’s conspicuously absent from anything and everything Ninty puts out these days. What’s the deal?

My guess: It’s not the hardware that’s the problem, it’s the software. Dozens of developers and publishers are clamoring to grovel at Nintendo’s feet right now after backing the wrong horse for the past two years, and I imagine a large part of what they’re saying to Nintendo is “let us develop some games for you and this MotionPlus thing.”

Meanwhile, Wii Sports Resort will blow them all away anyway.